DeepSummary
The transcript begins with Tyler Cowen welcoming Velina Chakarova, a geopolitical strategist, to discuss various topics related to global conflicts, shifting alliances, and emerging technologies. They delve into the significance of the Balkan Wars and Bulgarian nationalism in the present day, as well as the factors influencing Eastern European countries' relationships with Russia.
The conversation transitions to China's potential strategies regarding Taiwan, with Chakarova arguing that China is more likely to pursue a gradual approach of societal and economic penetration rather than outright military action. They also discuss Russia's potential next moves after the Ukraine conflict, including the possibility of provoking tensions in the Baltics.
Chakarova shares insights into her work at FACE, her consultancy firm, and her unique approach to scenario-planning and long-term forecasting. She emphasizes the importance of identifying trends and systemic processes to anticipate future global dynamics, rather than relying solely on predictions or daily political developments.
Key Episodes Takeaways
- The Balkan Wars and Bulgarian nationalism continue to shape regional dynamics and sentiments, although dreams of a Greater Bulgaria have diminished.
- Eastern European countries' relationships with Russia are influenced by factors such as historical ties, cultural ties, and proximity, with closer countries generally experiencing greater Russian influence.
- Chakarova argues that China is more likely to pursue a gradual strategy of societal and economic penetration in Taiwan rather than outright military action.
- Russia's potential next moves after Ukraine may involve provoking tensions in the Baltics or neighboring regions, depending on the outcome of the conflict and regional dynamics.
- The likelihood of nuclear weapon use remains low, although Chakarova speculates that the Middle East region might witness increased nuclearization due to Iran's pursuit of nuclear capabilities.
- Chakarova's approach to long-term forecasting and scenario-planning emphasizes identifying trends, systemic processes, and considering multiple potential futures rather than relying solely on predictions or daily political developments.
- Chakarova's concept of the "global system" encompasses various interconnected socioeconomic networks and serves as the foundation for her macro-level analysis and long-term forecasting.
- Chakarova stresses the importance of having a structured methodology, avoiding personal biases, and considering the macro perspective when conducting long-term geopolitical forecasting.
Top Episodes Quotes
- “Even now this reference is being used as survival moment is something that is defined as a black swan event and that could lead to a major military conflict, if not even, let's say, another world war.“ by Velina Chakarova
- “I'm observing a lot of consultancies, like the big consultancies, gold sex and so on and so forth, are trying to enter this, you know, business of foresight, geopolitical foresight with big teams, and trying, you know, to foresee the future. But in the end, I would argue it's, you know, a methodology that is not so easily to be conducted, and especially it's not easily to be conducted because you have to, you know, free yourself from any kind of biases, personal biases, and you have to have a model.“ by Velina Chakarova
- “So the big difference is that, you know, predictions, for instance, you have like this big prediction houses when it comes to elections, for instance, right? And they try to predict the outcome of elections. And contrary to predictions, I anticipate possible futures. I do foresight, not predictions, not forecast.“ by Velina Chakarova
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Episode Information
Conversations with Tyler
Mercatus Center at George Mason University
6/12/24
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You could try playing out the four-dimensional chess game of how the global order will shift in the next 10-15 years for yourself, or you could hire Velina Tchakarova. Founder of the consultancy FACE, Velina is a geopolitical strategist guiding businesses and organizations to anticipate the outcomes of global conflicts, shifting alliances, and bleeding edge technologies on the world stage.
In a globe-trotting conversation, Tyler and Velina start in the Balkans and then head to Russia, China, North Korea, and finally circle back to Putin’s interest in the Baltics. She gives her take on whether the Balkan Wars still matter today, the future of Bulgarian nationalism, what predicts which Eastern European countries will remain closer to Russia, why China will not attack Taiwan, Putin’s next move after Ukraine, where a nuclear weapon is most likely to be used next, how she sources intel, her unique approach to scenario-planning, and more.
Read a full transcript enhanced with helpful links, or watch the full video.
Recorded May 20th, 2024.
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