DeepSummary
Steve Forbes argues that the December jobs report, which initially seemed positive with 216,000 new jobs created, is actually concerning upon closer examination. He points out that the numbers for the previous two months were revised downward by 71,000, and a large part of the job gains came from government and healthcare sectors, while private sector job growth lagged.
Forbes highlights several issues with the jobs report, including discrepancies between the establishment survey (which provided the 216,000 figure) and the household survey (which found a decline of almost 700,000 jobs). He also notes that the response rate for both surveys is declining, affecting their accuracy, and that seasonal adjustments can distort the actual numbers.
Forbes concludes that the jobs report has real problems and is not indicative of a strong economy. He suggests that both raw and adjusted numbers should be released with equal prominence to provide a clearer picture.
Key Episodes Takeaways
- Seasonal adjustments and government computer models may distort the actual job numbers.
- Private sector job growth is lagging, while job gains are concentrated in government and healthcare sectors.
- Business investment remains weak, which is seen as an unhealthy sign for the economy.
- The jobs report has real problems and does not indicate a strong economy, according to Forbes' analysis.
- Both raw and adjusted job numbers should be released with equal prominence to provide a clearer picture.
- The December jobs report, which initially seemed positive, is misleading and does not accurately reflect the state of the economy.
- There are discrepancies between the two surveys used to calculate the jobs numbers, raising questions about their reliability.
- The response rates for both surveys are declining, potentially affecting their accuracy in representing the real-world situation.
Top Episodes Quotes
- “Problems lurk beneath the happy headline that don't bode well for the economy.“ by Steve Forbes
- “Business investment remains weak. That's not healthy.“ by Steve Forbes
- “Contrary to the 216,000 jobs gain initially highlighted, the household survey found a jobs decline of almost 700,000.“ by Steve Forbes
- “Who knows how this is affecting what is happening in the real world versus what comes out of government computer models, which gets to another seasonal adjustments.“ by Steve Forbes
- “The conclusions are clear that jobs report has real problems and the economy is not strong.“ by Steve Forbes
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Episode Information
Steve Forbes: What's Ahead
Forbes
1/9/24
Steve Forbes explains why the apparently positive jobs report from December is not what it seems—and explains why the economy is most likely poised for very rocky times.
Steve Forbes shares his What’s Ahead Spotlights each Tuesday, Thursday and Friday.
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