DeepSummary
The podcast episode features an interview with author and commentator Morgan Housel, discussing his latest book 'Same as Ever: A Guide to What Never Changes.' Housel emphasizes the importance of understanding timeless principles and human behaviors that remain constant over time, rather than trying to predict specific future events. He argues that while the details change, human responses to greed, fear, risk, and uncertainty tend to be stable across history.
Housel explores the idea that seemingly inconsequential events can have significant impacts, and that 'once-in-a-lifetime' events occur more frequently than people expect due to probability compounding. He also highlights the human desire for certainty and how stories are often more compelling than raw data or analysis. The discussion covers the role of incentives, expectations, adversity, and inefficiency in success, as well as the challenges of predicting the impact of innovations.
Throughout the conversation, Housel advocates for humility and understanding individual differences in personal finance and investing. He emphasizes the importance of balancing optimism and pessimism, acknowledging the inherent surprises in history, and finding approaches that work for one's unique circumstances.
Key Episodes Takeaways
- Understand timeless principles and human behaviors that shape perspectives and decision-making, rather than trying to predict specific future events.
- Embrace humility and individuality in personal finance and investing, as there is no 'one-size-fits-all' approach.
- Balance optimism and pessimism, acknowledging both the potential for progress and the inevitability of setbacks and challenges.
- Recognize the power of storytelling and narratives in shaping beliefs and perceptions, often more so than raw data or analysis.
- Appreciate the role of incentives, expectations, adversity, and inefficiency in individual and societal success.
- Understand that 'once-in-a-lifetime' events occur more frequently than expected due to probability compounding.
- Distinguish between permanent and expiring information, focusing on insights that remain relevant over time.
- Acknowledge the influence of personal experiences in shaping perspectives and decision-making.
Top Episodes Quotes
- โIf you are the kind of person who thinks the world works perfectly rationally, and you're just going through, and it's just like, look at the numbers, do what those say. It's generally not how things work.โ by Morgan Housel
- โMost bad news happens very fast, and most good news happens very slow. There are exceptions to both of those, but most of the time, that's how it works.โ by Morgan Housel
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Episode Information
The Rational Reminder Podcast
Benjamin Felix & Cameron Passmore
2/1/24
In this episode, we are joined, for the third time, by renowned author and commentator Morgan Housel. Many of you are familiar with Morgan's bestseller,ย The Psychology of Money, and he is back to discuss his latest book, Same as Ever: A Guide to What Never Changes. He is also the partner at The Collaboration Fund, a network of fund managers investing across asset classes while identifying and supporting companies at the intersection of for-profit and for-good. In our conversation, we delve into the timeless principles that shape our perspectives of the world and why things are the Same as Ever. We discuss the importance of holding cash, challenging traditional analytical approaches and encouraging a broader reflection on life beyond numbers. Discover the recurrent nature of once-in-a-lifetime events, the pitfalls associated with the insatiable desire for certainty, the value and power of storytelling, and the complex interplay between incentives and expectations. Gain insights into the value of forecasting behaviours instead of market dynamics, why pessimism is more common and more captivating than optimism, embracing slight inefficiencies on the path to success, and much more! Don't miss this engaging discussion with a master storyteller and gain new perspectives on finance, human behaviour, and the principles that remain the Same as Ever with Morgan Housel. Tune in now!
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Key Points From This Episode:
(0:03:28) Why it is important to understand the aspects that never change, with examples.ย
(0:05:58) Morgan explains the value of random and seemingly inconsequential events.
(0:07:43) Discover the most persistent characteristic of risk and the ways expectations impact behaviour and decision-making.ย
(0:13:04) How he has been dealing with the success of his book, Psychology of Money.ย
(0:15:11) What makes once-in-a-lifetime events more common than expected and the problems that a desire for certainty brings with it.ย
(0:19:16) Leveraging storytelling to understand the world and how to filter out the good information from the bad information.ย
(0:25:41) Explore the role of incentives in influencing expectations and how calm can turn into crazy.ย
(0:31:06) Learn how success can develop into failure and the problems that stem from investors trying to squeeze too much too soon from their investments.ย
(0:37:13) Advice for understanding the normal โgrowth rateโ and what motivates innovation.ย
(0:42:29) Balancing stress and adversity and why being slightly inefficient is a good thing.ย
(0:46:46) Navigating hassle and nonsense on the path to success.ย
(0:48:30) The time scale differences in materializing good news and bad news.ย
(0:50:31) Strategies for combining optimism and pessimism to make informed and effective long-term decisions.ย
(0:53:03) Examine the challenges of predicting the impact of future innovations.ย
(0:55:43) The tendency for people to perceive others or businesses as better.ย
(0:58:38) Hear about the difference between permanent and expiring information.ย
(1:00:36) Reasons why complexity and length are appealing and how personal experiences shape perspectives.ย
(1:05:00) Morgan shares the biggest takeaways from his books.ย
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Links From Todayโs Episode:
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Rational Reminder on iTunes โ https://itunes.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-rational-reminder-podcast/id1426530582 Rational Reminder Website โ https://rationalreminder.ca/ย
Rational Reminder on Instagram โ https://www.instagram.com/rationalreminder/
Rational Reminder on X โ https://twitter.com/RationalRemind
Rational Reminder on YouTube โ https://www.youtube.com/channel/
Rational Reminder Email โ info@rationalreminder.ca Benjamin Felix โ https://www.pwlcapital.com/author/benjamin-felix/ย
Benjamin on X โ https://twitter.com/benjaminwfelix
Benjamin on LinkedIn โ https://www.linkedin.com/in/benjaminwfelix/
Cameron Passmore โ https://www.pwlcapital.com/profile/cameron-passmore/
Cameron on X โ https://twitter.com/CameronPassmore
Cameron on LinkedIn โ https://www.linkedin.com/in/cameronpassmore/
Morgan Housel โ https://www.morganhousel.com/
Morgan Housel on LinkedInโ https://www.linkedin.com/in/morgan-housel-5b473821/
Morgan Housel on X โ https://twitter.com/morganhousel
Morgan Housel on Instagram โ https://www.instagram.com/morganhousel/
The Morgan Housel Podcast โ https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-morgan-housel-podcast/id1675310669
Collaborative Fund โ https://collabfund.com/
Collab Blog โ https://collabfund.com/blog/
Episode 128: Morgan Housel โ https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/128
Episode 191: Emerging Markets โ https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/191
Episode 224: Scott Cederburg โ https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/224
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Books From Todayโs Episode:
Sapiens โ https://www.amazon.com/Sapiens-Humankind-Yuval-Noah-Harari/dp/0062316095
Seinfeldia โ https://www.amazon.com/Seinfeldia-About-Nothing-Changed-Everything/dp/1476756112
The Snowball โ https://www.amazon.com/Snowball-Warren-Buffett-Business-Life/dp/0553384619
Same as Ever โ https://www.amazon.com/Same-Ever-Guide-Never-Changes/dp/0593332709
The Psychology of Money โ https://www.amazon.com/Psychology-Money-Timeless-lessons-happiness/dp/0857197681