DeepSummary
The episode discusses recent research from the U.S. National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) that explores scenarios for achieving a 100% clean power grid. It features an interview with Paul Denholm, a grid power researcher at NREL, who explains the details of two major studies conducted by NREL on pathways to a 100% clean electricity system by 2035 and options for meeting the last 10% of energy demand.
The studies examined four primary scenarios with varying assumptions about the availability and cost-effectiveness of different clean energy technologies, including direct air capture of CO2, carbon capture and storage (CCS), nuclear power, and transmission capacity expansion. The modeling revealed that across nearly all scenarios, onshore wind and solar dominate the electricity mix due to their low costs, even after accounting for variability and backup needs.
While offshore wind, geothermal, and other technologies play a smaller role in the modeling, Denholm emphasizes that these projections are not forecasts but rather explorations of possible pathways based on current policies and technology assumptions. He also addresses common criticisms and highlights the uncertainties inherent in such long-term modeling exercises.
Key Episodes Takeaways
- The NREL studies examined multiple scenarios for achieving a 100% clean U.S. power grid by 2035, with varying assumptions about technology availability and costs.
- Across nearly all scenarios, onshore wind and solar emerged as the dominant electricity sources due to their low costs, even after accounting for variability.
- Meeting the final 10% of energy demand is expected to be the most challenging part of the transition, requiring a diverse mix of technologies and strategies.
- Key uncertainties include the future costs of nuclear power, carbon capture and storage, transmission expansion, and other emerging technologies.
- The studies aim to explore potential pathways rather than forecast a single predicted future, given the inherent uncertainties involved.
- Addressing variability and ensuring reliability are central considerations in the modeling of high renewable energy scenarios.
- The exceptional wind and solar resources in the U.S. give these technologies a significant cost advantage over other clean energy options.
- Transmission expansion plays a crucial role in enabling greater exploitation of the nation's best wind resources.
Top Episodes Quotes
- “The simple answer is because they're the cheapest source of clean electricity, even when accounting for the variability.“ by Paul Denholm
- “I once threatened to my colleagues that I should change my signature line or my emails to something like, yes, we at NREL do actually understand that the wind doesn't always blow and the sun doesn't always shine. But look, we account for that in the modeling.“ by Paul Denholm
- “We realized that no one would ever agree on what kind of the primary scenario should be. So that's one of the reasons why we decided to do four separate scenarios.“ by Paul Denholm
- “Realistically, not all of these technologies are probably going to succeed. So we do need to make sure that we understand the implications of what happens if we can achieve low cost nuclear power, for instance.“ by Paul Denholm
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Episode Information
The Energy Transition Show with Chris Nelder
XE Network
12/21/22