DeepSummary
The podcast episode features an interview with Dr. Tobias Ide about his new book 'Catastrophes, Confrontations, and Constraints: How Disasters Shape the Dynamics of Armed Conflict.' Ide discusses the relationship between natural disasters and armed conflicts, exploring how disasters can facilitate the escalation or de-escalation of conflicts, and the ways in which combatants exploit these catastrophes.
Ide explains his theoretical framework, which identifies three pathways through which disasters can impact conflict dynamics: motives (grievances and solidarity), strategy (opportunities and constraints), and communication (costly signals and image cultivation). He employed a qualitative comparative analysis (QCA) method to analyze 36 case studies of disasters in conflict zones across different regions.
The findings reveal that in 50% of cases, disasters had no impact on conflict dynamics, while in 25% of cases, conflicts escalated (mostly due to rebels exploiting opportunities), and in another 25%, conflicts de-escalated (mainly due to constraints on conflict parties). Ide also discusses the impact of COVID-19 on armed conflicts, illustrating how the pandemic provided opportunities for both escalation and de-escalation in different contexts.
Key Episodes Takeaways
- Natural disasters can lead to both the escalation and de-escalation of armed conflicts, challenging the prevailing focus on whether disasters increase conflict risks.
- Three key pathways through which disasters shape conflict dynamics are motives (grievances and solidarity), strategy (opportunities and constraints), and communication (costly signals and image cultivation).
- Rebels are often the driving force behind conflict escalation after disasters, exploiting opportunities created by government weaknesses or distraction.
- Conflict de-escalation is more likely when disasters impose constraints on both conflict parties or shift the balance of power towards a weaker party.
- The COVID-19 pandemic provided opportunities for both escalation and de-escalation of armed conflicts in different contexts, illustrating the complex interplay between disasters and conflict dynamics.
- The qualitative comparative analysis (QCA) method allowed for the integration of quantitative and qualitative data, enabling the identification of complex causal patterns across multiple case studies.
- The findings contribute to broader debates on environmental security and climate security, challenging the dichotomous view of disasters increasing or decreasing conflict risks.
- Policy implications include the need for international support to governments facing rebel offensives after disasters, and the potential for diplomatic efforts during periods of conflict de-escalation triggered by disasters.
Top Episodes Quotes
- “Now, if you're fighting in a civil war, and especially if you're a rebel group, you don't want to be perceived as wicked by the disaster, or as you know, no longer fully determined to fight after disaster, because you rely on support from the local population, perhaps from foreign governments.“ by Tobias Ide
- “So basically, it's a more qualitative description of four conflicts, which is the Taliban insurgency in Afghanistan, the Islamic State insurgency in Iraq, Boko Haram in Nigeria, and the communist rebellion in the Philippines. And I basically similar to 36 case studies in the main book, I traced how the disaster affected conflict parties, put in some quantitative data on aid delivery military deployments, conflict intensity and so on, to understand how Covid shaped armed conflict dynamics.“ by Tobias Ide
- “And next after that, on my reading list, and I'm a bit embarrassed I haven't read it yet, is Joshua Busby's new book on climate security, also with Cambridge University Press, that has a bit of a similar research design than mine, focusing on other cases with some very contrasting outcomes. Like he finds that state capacity, how strong state is, it's quite important. Straw states experience climate related stability, not so often weak states do. I find that state capability is not of so much explanatory power.“ by Tobias Ide
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Episode Information
New Books in Environmental Studies
Marshall Poe
6/7/23