DeepSummary
The episode is a conversation between Ezra Klein and Elaine Kamarck, an expert on the presidential nomination process, about how an open Democratic convention would work if Joe Biden stepped aside as the nominee. Kamarck explains that the primaries allocate delegates who then officially choose the nominee at the convention, and if no candidate has a majority of delegates, the convention would be used to select a new nominee.
Kamarck discusses the history of how the modern primary system developed after the chaotic 1968 Democratic convention, replacing the old system where party leaders had more control over selecting nominees through conventions. She describes how politicking and deal-making among delegates, party leaders, interest groups, and candidates would happen at an open convention to build support for different potential nominees.
Kamarck acknowledges risks like lack of experience with brokered conventions today, but believes Democratic divisions are not severe enough to cause a disastrous convention fight. She says an open convention in 2024 could be a fascinating spectacle with intense media coverage as candidates jockey to win over delegates before the gathering.
Key Episodes Takeaways
- An open Democratic convention in 2024 could provide a fascinating public spectacle as candidates try to win over delegates through in-person persuasion and negotiations.
- There are risks like lack of modern experience with brokered conventions, but also potential advantages like insider vetting of candidates' governing ability.
- Compared to primaries, an open convention empowers party insiders and representatives rather than a purely national popular vote.
- While heated, Democratic Party divisions may not be severe enough currently to cause a drastically disruptive convention scenario.
- The convention process would feature a mix of courtship of grassroots activists, major interest groups like labor, and powerful state/local party officials.
- An incumbent president or vice president would likely enter an open convention with inherent advantages from their national ties.
- Public legitimacy concerns around parties overriding primary voters could arise but may be overcome depending on timing and circumstances.
- The dynamics could resemble an intense combination of behind-the-scenes negotiation and public-facing mass media campaigning aimed at narrative shaping.
Top Episodes Quotes
- “You would be finding your supporters in the state and encouraging them to go to the county convention or go to the state convention, you would be finding your friends. And again, you need a lot of friends to run for president, and you need to have a lot of friends all over the country, which, by the way, is why incumbent presidents do so well, and incumbent vice presidents actually do so well, is that they have a chance to make friends all over the place.“ by Elaine Kamarck
- “It would be sort of a bad idea to get really toxic at that point. Because if your first introduction to these people is you're out there saying ugly things about Kamala Harris or you're out there saying ugly things about Gavin Newsom, it's probably not a smart thing to do.“ by Elaine Kamarck
- “The modern primary system is devoid of peer review. There is no place where people who know about government say, hey, this person can or cannot do the job of president of the United States.“ by Elaine Kamarck
- “I think [voters] would understand that, okay, you can't rerun 50 state elections, because, after all, November is election day, and you got to have a nominee by then. I think people would understand that the political parties would have to do it.“ by Elaine Kamarck
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Episode Information
The Ezra Klein Show
New York Times Opinion
7/2/24