DeepSummary
The transcript discusses the potential for a larger war breaking out between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon. The U.S. Secretary of State Blinken warned about growing momentum towards such a conflict, but paradoxically neither side wants an all-out war. Various Iranian-backed militia groups, including those in Iraq, the Houthis in Yemen, and even the Taliban, have threatened to attack Israel if it strikes Hezbollah.
Jonathan Schanzer from the Foundation for Defense of Democracies explains that Israel is deliberating whether to conduct an operation to push Hezbollah back from the Israeli border in northern Lebanon. Hezbollah has been firing rockets into Israel, forcing many civilians to evacuate, and Israel may decide it needs to establish a buffer zone cleared of Hezbollah forces.
Schanzer notes that if Iran directly engages by firing missiles at Israel, it could escalate into the broader conflict that has been feared, with Iran's proxies on multiple fronts opening fire on Israel simultaneously. Israel would then have to decide whether to try to neutralize all those threats at once, which Schanzer describes as a 'herculean task.' An unintended Hezbollah attack causing Israeli civilian casualties could be the trigger for such an Israeli decision.
Key Episodes Takeaways
- There are rising tensions between Israel and the Iranian-backed Hezbollah militia in Lebanon that could escalate into a broader regional conflict.
- Israel is considering a military operation to push Hezbollah forces back from its northern border to create a buffer zone.
- Iran and its network of allied militia proxies in Yemen, Iraq, Syria and beyond have threatened massive retaliation against Israel if it strikes Hezbollah.
- An unintended Hezbollah attack causing Israeli civilian casualties could trigger an Israeli decision to try to neutralize all Iranian-allied threats simultaneously.
- The lack of consequences faced by Iran so far for its provocations via proxies may be emboldening its threats.
- The domestic political context of Iran's presidential election may be influencing the escalating threats.
- Resolving the core Iranian threat could be key to Israel achieving a resolution of the conflict with Hezbollah.
- The U.S. has not yet responded forcefully against the Iranian regime itself over the escalating crisis.
Top Episodes Quotes
- “Jonathan Schanzer: In the midst of a presidential contest.“ by Jonathan Schanzer
- “They have not paid a price for waging this proxy war, not since October 7. They have not paid a price in terms of sanctions or diplomatic isolation or political pressure, certainly not military pressure.“ by Jonathan Schanzer
- “I think we need to watch for unintended consequences, a Hezbollah attack that hits a bus or a school or a large number of israeli soldiers. That would be the psychological moment that would essentially thrust Israel into this battle.“ by Jonathan Schanzer
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Episode Information
The John Batchelor Show
John Batchelor
7/3/24
#IRAN: Threatening the IDF before the operation into Lebanon to move Hezbollah north of the Litani River. Jonathan Schanzer, FDD
https://www.timesofisrael.com/hezbollahs-no-2-says-terror-group-will-halt-its-attacks-if-gaza-ceasefire-reached/1889 Beirut