DeepSummary
In this episode, Matthew Belloni discusses the financing behind Kevin Costner's upcoming Western film 'Horizon: An American Saga - Chapter 1' with veteran producer Mark Gill. They dive into the details of how independent films of this scale are financed, including foreign pre-sales, studio distribution deals, and equity investments. Gill explains the challenges Costner faced in securing funding and the financial risks involved, estimating the film needs to make around $110-120 million at the US box office to break even.
They also touch on Francis Ford Coppola's self-financed passion project 'Megalopolis,' which recently found a US distributor in Lionsgate after premiering at Cannes. Gill breaks down the economics of Lionsgate's involvement and why their financial risk is relatively low compared to Costner's 'Horizon.'
Towards the end, Belloni and Craig Horlbeck discuss their box office predictions for 'Horizon' and the potential impact of Costner's recent comments about not returning to the TV show 'Yellowstone.' They debate whether the film's long runtime and unconventional title could hurt its commercial prospects.
Key Episodes Takeaways
- Kevin Costner self-financed his Western epic 'Horizon: An American Saga - Chapter 1' with a budget over $110 million, relying on equity investors and pre-sales after failing to secure a full studio deal.
- The film needs to make around $110-120 million at the US box office alone to break even, not accounting for potential overseas revenues.
- Major studios like Warner Bros. have minimal financial risk, only taking distribution fees, while Costner and his investors stand to lose the most if 'Horizon' underperforms.
- Francis Ford Coppola mostly self-financed 'Megalopolis' by leveraging his business assets, with Lionsgate taking a relatively small financial risk as the US distributor.
- The long runtime, unconventional title, and Western genre of 'Horizon' pose significant commercial challenges despite Costner's bankability from 'Yellowstone.'
- Box office performance is critical, as it dictates revenues from downstream windows like home video and TV licensing deals.
- If the first 'Horizon' film struggles, securing distribution for the already-shot sequels could become extremely difficult.
- Costner making this film at all without full studio backing is an audacious gamble that could represent a legendary 'flex' if it's even marginally profitable.
Top Episodes Quotes
- “If you're Francis Coppola, and I've got to know him fairly well over the years, you know, where he's made his money is not wine. It's actually pasta.“ by Mark Gill
- “Basically, what you have to do, or what you're supposed to do, is find a place to shoot where you can get at least 20% of the money back because you have government incentives.“ by Mark Gill
- “I'm glad that Kevin was able to pull this off and make the movie. I think it's really cool. I love the bravery of it. I'm a little worried about what's going to happen economically, but I admire the bravery. This is what's made Hollywood interesting. Otherwise it's just sequel. It is till the end of time, right?“ by Mark Gill
- “If it's profitable, it's a flex which, you know, is at about 250 worldwide.“ by Matthew Belloni
Entities
Company
Person
Tv show
Movie
Streaming service
Episode Information
The Town with Matthew Belloni
The Ringer
6/26/24
Matt is joined by longtime producer Mark Gill to break down the finances of Kevin Costner’s ‘Horizon: An American Saga—Chapter 1.’ He explains how indie films of this scope and scale are financed, how much the movie needs to make for everyone to survive, and who has the most to lose. They also discuss another ambitious self-financed project, Francis Ford Coppola’s ‘Megalopolis’ (02:35). Matt finishes the show with an opening weekend box office prediction for ‘Horizon: An American Saga—Chapter 1’ (25:50).
For a 20 percent discount on Matt’s Hollywood insider newsletter, ‘What I’m Hearing ...,’ click this link: puck.news/thetown
Email us your thoughts! thetown@spotify.com
Host: Matt Belloni
Guest: Mark Gill
Producers: Craig Horlbeck and Jessie Lopez
Theme Song: Devon Renaldo
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices