DeepSummary
In this episode, Rudyard Griffiths interviews Sarah Payne, a professor of history and grand strategy at the US Naval War College, about the ongoing war in Ukraine and the growing tensions between the West and the Russia-China axis. Payne explains that Russia's objectives in Ukraine appear to be unlimited, meaning they seek the complete defeat and subjugation of Ukraine rather than a negotiated settlement. She argues that sanctions are an effective way for the West to impose costs on Russia without direct military intervention.
Payne discusses the differing values and perspectives driving Russia, China, and the West regarding the rules-based international order. While the West values freedom of navigation and universal rules, Russia and China view the world through the lens of competing spheres of influence. Payne suggests that changing these deeply-rooted perspectives will be a long-term process, but one necessary to avoid devastating global conflict.
The episode also touches on the nuclear arms race between major powers and the potential consequences of military conflict between the West and the Russia-China axis. Payne expresses concern about the lack of serious arms control negotiations and the potential for miscalculation or escalation given the high stakes involved.
Key Episodes Takeaways
- Russia's objectives in Ukraine appear to be unlimited, seeking the complete defeat and subjugation of Ukraine rather than a negotiated settlement.
- The West and the Russia-China axis have fundamentally opposing perspectives on the international order, with Russia and China favoring spheres of influence over universal rules.
- Economic sanctions are a key tool for the West to impose costs on Russia and China without direct military intervention.
- Changing the entrenched mindsets and identities driving Russia's and China's actions will likely be a long-term process.
- The risks of nuclear escalation are heightened by the lack of serious arms control negotiations between major powers.
- China has a history of strategic blunders that contradict its reputation as a masterful long-term strategist.
- The ongoing conflict represents an existential threat for Putin and an opportunity to reassert Russian dominance over former Soviet territories.
- The potential loss of independence and economic gains is a major concern for eastern European nations formerly under Soviet control.
Top Episodes Quotes
- “If someone has unlimited objectives, for instance, of the sort that Hitler had against the west or France and Britain back in the day, if you compromise with them, it's called impeachment because you're setting them up actually to come in for the kill.“ by Sarah Payne
- “Putin has made clear that the value of the object is enormous for him personally. And now that he's made the decision to launch, it's probably existential for him, for the russian people.“ by Sarah Payne
- “So if you look at the eastern european countries that for years were under soviet domination, for them, slipping the leash has been the miracle of the last generation, where their living standards have gone up, et cetera, the possibility of losing that value of the object high.“ by Sarah Payne
- “Of course, it's worrisome. And there's another piece in many newspaper coverage and things of China. They say, oh, they're such long term great strategists. I'm going to pop that bubble immediately.“ by Sarah Payne
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Episode Information
The Munk Debates Podcast
Munk Foundation / iHeartRadio
2/22/24
Most geopolitical experts agree that we have entered into a new cold war. The rise of the China-Russia axis and its threat to the international rules-based order is of growing concern to western powers. On this Munk Dialogue, we’re speaking with Sarah Paine, University Professor of History and Grand Strategy at the US Naval War College. Sarah explains what is motivating leaders like Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin to act aggressively towards their neighbours, and how western powers should respond to these acts of aggression. In short: what can we learn about the wars of the 20th century to prevent a devastating global war in the 21st?
The host of the Munk Debates is Rudyard Griffiths
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